Projections & Methodology
Soccer Power Ratings: Elo, SPI, and Why They Disagree
Elo, SPI, and the other systems that boil a team down to one number all disagree - on purpose. A guide to how soccer power ratings are built and why they diverge.
Category · 4 articles
Projections & Methodology
How forecasts are built — and why they disagree.
Every fixture now comes with a win probability and every season with a projected table. Where do those numbers come from, how much should you trust them, and why do two reputable models forecast the same league so differently?
These pieces open up the machinery: the inputs, the simulations, the assumptions and the uncertainty. The framing is analytical throughout — this is about understanding models, not following betting markets.
Projections & Methodology
How Football Win-Probability and Match-Forecast Models Work
What is behind the win-probability number on your screen — pre-match goal models, team ratings and live in-game updates — explained with the actual maths.
Projections & Methodology
Why League Projection Models Disagree: A Look Under the Hood
Two reputable models can forecast the same league very differently. The reasons live in their priors, ratings and simulations - why small choices cascade.
Projections & Methodology
Does Preseason Form Predict Anything? What the Research Says
Every August, preseason results get over-read. What the evidence says about whether friendlies predict the season — and what is just noise dressed as signal.