Category · 4 articles
How forecasts are built — and why they disagree.
Every fixture now comes with a win probability and every season with a projected table. Where do those numbers come from, how much should you trust them, and why do two reputable models forecast the same league so differently?
These pieces open up the machinery: the inputs, the simulations, the assumptions and the uncertainty. The framing is analytical throughout — this is about understanding models, not following betting markets.
Elo, SPI, and the other systems that boil a team down to one number all disagree - on purpose. A guide to how soccer power ratings are built and why they diverge.
What is behind the win-probability number on your screen - pre-match goal models, team ratings and live in-game updates - explained with the actual maths and a worked Poisson example.
Two reputable models can forecast the same league very differently. The reasons live in their priors, ratings and simulations - here is what is under the hood and why small choices cascade.
Every August, preseason results get over-read. What does the evidence actually say about whether friendlies predict the season - and what is just noise dressed up as a signal.