World Cup 2026: Analysis & Prediction Hub
Live 2026 analysis, a backtested prediction model, a real shot map, and a simulator you can run. The whole World Cup, in numbers.
This is our World Cup headquarters. Everything here is built on real data — the 2026 pieces from completed matches only (never a result we made up, never a number for a game that hasn't kicked off), the historical and modelling work from StatsBomb's free, full record of 2022. Below: the live 2026 analysis as it accumulates, a prediction model we backtested so you can judge whether it works, a map of where World Cup goals are really scored from, and an interactive simulator you can drive yourself.
Start here: two new deep dives
We Built a Prediction Model — Then Backtested It on 2022
A transparent Poisson model, fit only on 2022 group-stage scores and Monte-Carlo'd through the real knockout bracket 20,000 times. Its top tier held the eventual champion and two of the four semifinalists — and no team topped 15%. Then we point it, carefully, at 2026.
Where Shots Are Taken vs. Where Goals Are Scored From
Every shot of the 2022 World Cup on one pitch, every goal on another. Attempts spray across the final third; goals collapse into a tight central band. Outside the box you convert 2.2%; inside, 15.8%.
Run it yourself: the Monte-Carlo simulator
This is the same pipeline as the prediction article — group round-robins, best-third qualification, and a 32-team knockout — run thousands of times over the real 48-team format. Set each team's strength and watch the advance and title odds fall out. Every number is a property of your inputs and the format's structure; it contains no real 2026 results.
This simulator needs JavaScript. The method: simulate each group as a round robin with Poisson goals (scoring rate set by the rating gap), advance the top two of each group plus the eight best third-placed teams into a 32-team knockout decided by the same goal model, and repeat thousands of times to estimate each team's advance and title odds. A standalone version lives at the simulator page.
The 2026 tournament, by the numbers (live)
Dated snapshots from completed matches only — each piece is honest about how many games it's built on, because early-tournament numbers move fast.
- The 2026 World Cup so far, by the numbers — goals per game vs 2022.
- Possession is overrated: what actually wins games so far.
- The clean sheet is the most valuable thing at the 2026 World Cup.
- Clinical or wasteful? Shot conversion at the 2026 World Cup.
- More draws and more blowouts: the 2026 field is more polarized.
- Discipline and defeat: cards and fouls so far.
Prediction & modelling
- How a World Cup simulation works — the method in prose.
- How often does the favourite actually win?
- Don't overfit the knockouts — reading a short tournament honestly.
- Simulating the knockout rounds — why favourites lose more than you'd think.
- How models rate the field before a ball is kicked.
- What actually predicts a deep run.
The anatomy of a goal: StatsBomb deep dives
Five data-driven studies built from StatsBomb's free, full shot record of the 2022 World Cup — every one of the 1,494 shots, with location, timing, build-up, and placement.
Where goals are scored from
Attempts spray across the final third; goals collapse into a tight central band. Outside the box you convert 2.2%, inside 15.8%.
Where players aim
A goal-mouth map: 52% of goals go in low, the bottom corners are deadliest, and the center (where the keeper stands) is nearly empty.
When goals are scored
The second half outscored the first 91 to 58, goals build toward halftime, and stoppage time punches far above its minutes.
How goals originate
Set pieces start 30% of goals, open play 46%, and the rare counter-attack is the deadliest origin of all at 17.9% conversion.
Who beat their xG
The Netherlands and France finished clinically; Belgium and Brazil wasted their chances and went home early.
Explore every shot yourself
The interactive map below holds all 1,494 shots of the 2022 World Cup from StatsBomb's open data. Filter by team, by how the move began, and by result; every dot is sized by its expected goals, goals are highlighted in gold, and hovering a shot shows who took it and its xG. It's the raw material behind the deep dives above — poke around and find your own patterns.
This explorer needs JavaScript and loads a data file, so it runs on the live site (not a local file preview). It plots every 2022 World Cup shot on the attacking half, sized by xG, filterable by team, build-up, and result.
Reading the game: xG, shots & goalkeeping
- Reading a shot map: dots sized by danger.
- How to watch with xG — the story under the scoreline.
- World Cup goalkeeping: how shot-stopping wins tournaments.
- Preparing for penalties and the history of the shootout.
How the 48-team format works
- Why 104 matches? The arithmetic of the 48-team World Cup.
- The best third-place math — how eight extra teams reach the knockouts.
- Group-stage survival: the points math of getting out.
- Group tiebreakers, explained.
- Will 48 teams mean more upsets?
- The longest knockout bracket: 32 teams to one.
Last updated 23 June 2026.