Category · 22 articles
What the numbers actually measure, in plain language.
Every few years a new metric jumps from analytics Twitter to the broadcast graphics, usually with no explanation of what it means or how it was built. This is where those metrics get unpacked — not just the definition, but the data and the maths underneath, and the situations where each one quietly misleads you.
If you've ever wondered how an expected-goals model is actually trained, why raw tackle counts flatter passive teams, or what PPDA is really counting, start here.
Every scoreline prediction in football rests on the Poisson distribution. So I fit it to all 64 real matches of the 2022 World Cup and checked the residuals — it gets the shape right and fails in one specific, informative way: real goals are overdispersed. Here's why, with the formula and the code.
Aerial-duel win percentage, why raw counts mislead, where aerial dominance actually matters — set pieces, target men, defending crosses — and how to read heading data without confusing volume for quality.
Expected points (xPts) simulates a match from its shot-level xG to get win, draw and loss probabilities, then a points total that rewards the chances a team created rather than the goals that happened to go in. How it is computed and what it reveals against the real table.
Short versus long goalkeeper distribution, launch %, pass completion under pressure, and how a keeper's distribution choices shape a team's buildup. How to read the data without mistaking a stylistic choice for a skill.
Field tilt measures territorial dominance — each team's share of final-third passes or touches. How it is computed, why it differs from possession percentage, and what it predicts that the possession number does not.
A long throw-in into the box functions like a corner you can take from anywhere down the touchline. Why it works, where the danger zones are, the expected-goals case for and against it, and the famous practitioners who built reputations on it.
Every team defends corners with some mix of zonal marking, man-marking, and a hybrid of the two. The trade-offs of each system, what the data says about conceding from corners, and how to evaluate a defensive set-piece scheme honestly.
The current scoreline quietly distorts almost every match statistic. How being ahead or behind bends possession, shot volume, and xG — and why serious analysts adjust for game state before drawing conclusions.
PPDA puts a single number on pressing intensity. How it is computed from opponent passes and defensive actions, what high and low values mean, and where the metric breaks down.
xG only values shots. Possession-value models score every action - a pass, a carry, a tackle - by how much it changes the odds of scoring. How VAEP and on-ball value work.
A defender who makes lots of tackles might be badly positioned. Why raw tackle and interception counts mislead, and how to read defensive actions in context.
You can dominate the ball and still play it nowhere dangerous. Field tilt measures territory — whose final third the game is actually being played in.
A goal is the end of a chain, not a solo act. Shot- and goal-creating actions credit the two moves before a shot — and surface the players who make chances without the assist.
A team dominating possession might just be losing. Why you can't read match stats without the scoreline — and how good analysis adjusts for game state.
Corners feel dangerous and mostly aren't. What the expected-goals value of set pieces actually is, why they're so hard to model, and how smart teams attack them.
Most of the players who create a goal never touch it last. xGChain and xGBuildup credit the whole possession - here's how they work and who they reveal.
A plain-language guide to expected goals — what xG measures, how the model is actually trained on shot features like distance and angle, and how to read it without getting fooled.
How expected assists (xA) and expected threat (xT) measure creativity that raw assist counts miss - what each one captures, how they are built, and how to read them.
PPDA - passes allowed per defensive action - is how analysts put a number on pressing. What it measures, exactly how it is computed, and where it misleads.
Progressive passes and carries measure who actually moves the ball toward goal. The operational definitions, why centre-backs and deep midfielders dominate, and how to use them.
Raw tackle and interception counts mostly measure how little a team has the ball. Possession-adjustment fixes that - here is the problem, the formula, and a worked example.
Post-shot xG (PSxG) grades goalkeepers by how hard their shots-faced were to save. How PSxG differs from xG, what goals prevented means, and why pre-shot xG cannot grade keepers.
