Category · 19 articles
Long-form analysis, built from the raw event data.
These are the longer pieces — the ones that start with a question (Is home advantage really fading? What does a World Cup actually look like in the numbers?) and answer it by pulling thousands of events and letting the distribution speak.
Each deep-dive ships with the chart, the table, the source, the as-of date and the script. No vibes, no cherry-picked single games — just the data, aggregated honestly and visualised clearly.
Using StatsBomb data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, shots from outside the penalty box were 37% of all attempts but produced just 8% of the goals — a 2.3% conversion rate against 15.6% from inside. The data behind 'stop shooting from there.'
We sorted every non-penalty shot from the 2022 World Cup by its expected-goals value and checked how often each band actually went in. xG holds up well: a 0–5% shot scored 2.6% of the time, a 'big chance' of 35%+ went in 58.9%. The calibration, and what a big chance is really worth.
Using StatsBomb data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, headers and feet convert at almost the same rate (11.1% vs 10.5%) — but only because headers come from higher-quality positions. Relative to chance quality, foot finishing beat the model, and the left foot was the most clinical of all.
Using StatsBomb's data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, we trace every goal back to how the possession began. Set pieces (corners and free kicks) originated 30% of non-penalty goals; open play 46%; and counter-attacks, though rare, converted at 17.9% — nearly double the open-play rate. Where goals really come from.
Using StatsBomb's data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, we map exactly when the goals went in. The second half produced 61% of them to the first half's 39%, the busiest phase is the run-up to halftime, and stoppage time is wildly productive for the minutes it gets. The clock is not neutral.
Using StatsBomb's end-location data for every goal of the 2022 World Cup, we map exactly where inside the goal frame the ball crossed the line. Goals cluster in the corners — especially the bottom corners (the two deadliest zones at 12% and 14%) — while the middle of the goal, where keepers stand, is nearly empty. A keeper's-eye view of finishing.
Using StatsBomb's open-play shot data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, we compare every team's goals to its expected goals. The deep-run teams finished clinically — Netherlands +5.0, France +3.7 — while Belgium (one goal on 3.7 xG) and Brazil wasted theirs. Finishing skill, hot streak, or luck?
Using StatsBomb's free shot data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, we map where every shot was taken against where goals were actually scored from. Attempts spray across the final third; goals collapse into a tight central band. Outside the box you convert 2.2%; inside, 15.8%.
Argentina controlled the ball; France did the chasing. The StatsBomb event data shows France made more defensive actions and pressed higher up the pitch — the out-of-possession half of a counterpunching game — while possession-adjusted intensity was near-identical.
Argentina out-passed, out-completed, and out-territoried France in the 2022 final — and still needed penalties to win it. The StatsBomb event data, the control scorecard, and the honest gap between dominating the ball and winning the match.
A results-level analysis of every one of the 64 matches at the 2022 World Cup, from real StatsBomb data: goals per match overall and by stage, the scoreline distribution, one-goal games, shootouts, and the highest- and lowest-scoring matches — with the numbers computed and the code shown.
A shot-by-shot xG breakdown of Argentina 3–3 France, the 2022 World Cup final, from real StatsBomb event data. Who actually created more, where the two scorelines came from, and why the open-play story is far more lopsided than 3–3 looks.
The cutback — a ball pulled back from the byline to an arriving runner — produces some of the highest-value chances in football. The geometry behind it, and how to spot cutback-heavy attacks in the data.
Football quietly went from three substitutes to five. How deeper benches reshaped late-game tactics, squad value, and who controls the closing minutes.
The most dangerous moments in football come right after a turnover. Why counterattacks produce higher-quality chances than settled possession, and what the data shows.
Crossing feels like attacking; the data says it’s mostly inefficient. Why the average cross is a low-percentage play, and when it actually makes sense.
The penalty is the most studied shot in football - nearly identical every time, and converted about three times in four. The geometry, the keeper's dilemma, and the rules that move the odds.
A data-driven primer for the first 48-team World Cup - the new format by the numbers, what recent tournaments tell us about goals and favourites, and the underlying-quality lens to watch it through.
Home advantage is real, measurable and - maybe - shrinking. A large sample of match results puts numbers on how big the edge is, where it comes from, and what the empty-stadium era revealed.
