SoccerAnalytics

Category · 35 articles

Data Deep-Dives

Long-form analysis, built from the raw event data.

These are the longer pieces — the ones that start with a question (Is home advantage really fading? What does a World Cup actually look like in the numbers?) and answer it by pulling thousands of events and letting the distribution speak.

Each deep-dive carries the chart, the table, the source and the as-of date, with the method written out step by step so you can reproduce it from the published data. No vibes, no cherry-picked single games — just the data, aggregated honestly and visualised clearly.

  1. A One-Goal Lead at 90 Minutes Now Slips One Time in Seven

    For 21 seasons, Premier League sides a goal up at 90:00 won 93.3% of the time. Since added time grew in 2023-24: 85.3%. Two-goal leads are as safe as ever.

    · 11 min read

  2. Does Europe Cost English Clubs at the Weekend? Three Seasons Can't Find It

    After a European night, English clubs took 1.56 league points a match against 1.62 expected. Within the same club and season the gap is -0.024: not measurable.

    · 8 min read

  3. Manchester United Lead the League in Shots and Sit Twelfth

    United take 22.6 shots a game and have 5 points. Across 2025-26, a club's five-game shot count predicted its next results better than its points did.

    · 8 min read

  4. Home Advantage Didn't Die. The Results Column Can't See It

    Home and away split the first 40 matches of 2026-27 evenly, yet the shot, corner and card columns keep the home edge. Plus a decade of home-advantage data.

    · 17 min read

  5. Finishing and Saving Rates Have No Memory

    Last season a club's finishing and saving rates at halfway said nothing about its second half. Four rounds into 2026-27, those rates explain most of the table.

    · 11 min read

  6. Three Games Tell You How a Team Plays, Not How Good It Is

    All 380 games of 2025-26, resampled: after three matches a club's passing already agrees with the rest of its season at 0.76. Points sit at 0.39, cards at 0.27.

    · 15 min read

  7. The Whistle Is Busier and the Cards Are Not

    Three rounds in, the Premier League is calling 1.65 more fouls a match than last season and booking fewer of them per foul. Neither number clears the noise.

    · 14 min read

  8. Schedule Strength Is Real. It Still Won't Fix the Table

    Two rounds in, who you drew explains a quarter of the Premier League table. Correcting for it re-ranks nine of fifteen clubs not at all.

    · 13 min read

  9. Matchweek Two: One Heist Refunded, One Doubled Down, and the Ball Keeps Losing

    Matchweek two split matchweek one's heists: Ipswich paid theirs back 2-5, Hull stole again, and 10 of the season's 15 winners have had under half the ball.

    · 8 min read

  10. Matchweek One Under the Hood: Ten Box Scores, Two Heists, and a Bad Weekend for Possession

    Matchweek one's ten box scores, audited: six of nine winners had under 50% possession, and shots on target called seven of the nine results.

    · 6 min read

  11. The Table Lies Until October: Last Season's Premier League, Replayed From Matchweek One

    All 380 matches of 2025-26, replayed: the table agreed with May at 0.43 after one game and crossed 0.75 only around game ten.

    · 5 min read

  12. The 2026-27 Premier League, By the Numbers

    The 2026-27 Premier League tracked from completed matches only: goals per game, draws, home advantage and the shots-on-target rule. No predictions — just data.

    · 4 min read

  13. The Shots-on-Target Rule

    In decided 2026 World Cup games, the team matching or beating its opponent on shots on target won 70 of 80, and 24 of 28 knockouts.

    · 7 min read

  14. Headers, Measured: The Geography of the World Cup's Aerial Shot

    Headers were 18% of 2022 World Cup goals, taken from half a foot shot's distance — and open-play headers converted three times better than set-piece ones.

    · 6 min read

  15. The Shootout Discount: Every 2022 World Cup Penalty, Measured

    All 64 penalties of the 2022 World Cup: in-game kicks scored at 74%, shootout kicks 63%. Where they went, who saved them, and what 2026's shootouts inherit.

    · 5 min read

  16. What Keepers Actually Save: 483 On-Target Shots, Measured

    World Cup keepers saved 69% of on-target shots in 2022, but 84% of weak ones and just 33% of big chances. A chance-by-chance census of every save.

    · 4 min read

  17. A Handful of Chances Decide a World Cup

    Chance quality at the 2022 World Cup was wildly unequal: half of all open-play shots produced just 18 of 152 goals, while the top 5% accounted for 28%.

    · 6 min read

  18. Do the Knockouts Really Tighten Up? The 2022 Shot Data Says No

    All 64 results of the 2022 World Cup by stage, and whether knockouts really get cautious: chance quality per shot was near-identical.

    · 15 min read

  19. The Volley Is Not the Wasteful Shot You Were Told

    Across 1,178 open-play foot shots at the 2022 World Cup, volleys converted at 15.2% and half-volleys at 10.4%, both beating settled shots' 9.8%.

    · 6 min read

  20. What Actually Happens to a World Cup Shot

    Across 1,430 open-play shots at the 2022 World Cup, only 34% forced a save or went in — the most common outcome is missing the target entirely (37%).

    · 6 min read

  21. The Long-Shot Trap: Inside vs Outside the Box at the 2022 World Cup

    At the 2022 World Cup, shots from outside the penalty box were 37% of all attempts but produced just 8% of the goals — 2.3% conversion against 15.6% inside.

    · 7 min read

  22. Does xG Actually Work? Big Chances vs Long Shots at the 2022 World Cup

    Every non-penalty 2022 World Cup shot, sorted by xG and checked against reality: 0–5% shots scored 2.6% of the time; 'big chances' of 35%+ went in 58.9%.

    · 6 min read

  23. Headers vs. Feet: Which World Cup Shots Actually Go In?

    At the 2022 World Cup, headers and feet converted at almost the same rate (11.1% vs 10.5%) — but only because headers come from higher-quality positions.

    · 6 min read

  24. Set Pieces, Open Play, and Counters: Where 2022 World Cup Goals Came From

    Tracing every 2022 World Cup goal to how the possession began: set pieces originated 30% of non-penalty goals, open play 46%; counters converted at 17.9%.

    · 5 min read

  25. When World Cup Goals Are Scored: The Timing of 2022's 152 Goals

    Mapping when 2022 World Cup goals went in: the second half produced 61% to the first half's 39%, and stoppage time is wildly productive.

    · 4 min read

  26. Where World Cup Players Aim: The Goal-Mouth Map of 2022's Goals

    Using StatsBomb's end-location data for every goal of the 2022 World Cup, we map exactly where inside the goal frame the ball crossed the line.

    · 4 min read

  27. Who Beat Their xG at the 2022 World Cup — and Who Wasted It

    Using StatsBomb shot data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, we compare every team's goals to its xG. Finishing skill, hot streak, or luck?

    · 5 min read

  28. Where World Cup Shots Are Taken vs. Where Goals Are Scored From

    Using StatsBomb's free shot data for all 64 matches of the 2022 World Cup, we map where every shot was taken against where goals were actually scored from.

    · 6 min read

  29. The 2022 World Cup Final in Data: Pressing, Possession and the xG Story

    Argentina controlled the ball, France did the chasing, and the xG told its own story: the 2022 final's pressing, possession and chances, from StatsBomb data.

    · 20 min read

  30. The Cutback: Why the Pull-Back From the Byline Is Football's Most Dangerous Assist

    The cutback — a ball pulled back from the byline to an arriving runner — produces some of the highest-value chances in football. The geometry behind it.

    · 7 min read

  31. The Five-Substitutions Era: How a Quiet Rule Change Reshaped the Closing Minutes

    Football quietly went from three substitutes to five. How deeper benches reshaped late-game tactics, squad value, and who controls the closing minutes.

    · 6 min read

  32. Transition and Counterattacks: Why Turnovers Are Football's Most Dangerous Moments

    The most dangerous moments in football come right after a turnover. Why counterattacks produce higher-quality chances than settled possession.

    · 7 min read

  33. The Overrated Cross: Why the Data Is Suspicious of Getting It Wide

    Crossing feels like attacking; the data says it’s mostly inefficient. Why the average cross is a low-percentage play, and when it actually makes sense.

    · 6 min read

  34. The Penalty Conversion Rate: Football’s Most Studied Shot

    The penalty is the most studied shot in football: near-identical every time, converted about three times in four. The geometry and the keeper's bind.

    · 8 min read

  35. World Cup 2026 by the Numbers: A Data-Driven Tournament Primer

    A data-driven primer for the first 48-team World Cup - the new format by the numbers, and what recent tournaments tell us about goals and favourites.

    · 7 min read