Four Points From Six Games Usually Sinks a Promoted Club. Not the Rest
Since 2003-04, 21 of 27 promoted clubs with four points or fewer after six matches went down. Established clubs on the same total: 22 of 64.
Premier League 2026-27
Matches to 11 October| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 | 13.8 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 | 13.0 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 | 18.0 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 | 15.8 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 | 15.8 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 | 13.7 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 | 12.0 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 | 11.3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 14.8 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | −3 | 9 | 11.5 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10.2 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −3 | 7 | 11.0 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20.8 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −3 | 5 | 17.7 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −5 | 5 | 11.3 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −6 | 4 | 13.0 |
| 17 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | −6 | 3 | 12.8 |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | −6 | 3 | 14.0 |
| 19 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −9 | 3 | 10.2 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −4 | 2 | 14.2 |
Latest results
10–11 October- Sat 10 OctArsenal2–1Leeds United
- Sat 10 OctIpswich Town2–1Fulham
- Sat 10 OctAston Villa2–2Brentford
- Sat 10 OctChelsea5–1AFC Bournemouth
- Sat 10 OctSunderland0–2Brighton & Hove Albion
- Sat 10 OctManchester United1–1Tottenham Hotspur
- Sun 11 OctCrystal Palace3–1Nottingham Forest
- Sun 11 OctHull City2–2Everton
- Sun 11 OctLiverpool0–3Manchester City
Next fixtures
12 October, UK time- Mon 12 OctCoventry CityNewcastle United
Kick-off times as ESPN’s public scoreboard listed them on 25 September 2026.
Analysis
All 37 deep dives-
The Round After an International Break Has Fewer Upsets, Not More
In 767 first matches after an international break since 2003, underdogs won 145 times against 174.5 expected. The favourite's edge lasts one match.
-
A One-Goal Lead at 90 Minutes Now Slips One Time in Seven
For 21 seasons, Premier League sides a goal up at 90:00 won 93.3% of the time. Since added time grew in 2023-24: 85.3%. Two-goal leads are as safe as ever.
-
Does Europe Cost English Clubs at the Weekend? Three Seasons Can't Find It
After a European night, English clubs took 1.56 league points a match against 1.62 expected. Within the same club and season the gap is -0.024: not measurable.
-
Manchester United Lead the League in Shots and Sit Twelfth
United take 22.6 shots a game and have 5 points. Across 2025-26, a club's five-game shot count predicted its next results better than its points did.
-
Home Advantage Didn't Die. The Results Column Can't See It
Home and away split the first 40 matches of 2026-27 evenly, yet the shot, corner and card columns keep the home edge. Plus a decade of home-advantage data.
-
Finishing and Saving Rates Have No Memory
Last season a club's finishing and saving rates at halfway said nothing about its second half. Four rounds into 2026-27, those rates explain most of the table.
Start here
How the site works- Expected Goals (xG) Explained
The one metric that reshaped how football is watched — what it measures, where it comes from, and where it breaks.
- We Built a Prediction Model — Then Backtested It on 2022
A transparent Poisson model, backtested on a tournament we already know before it was allowed near the one we don't.
- Where Shots Are Taken vs. Where Goals Are Scored From
Every 2022 World Cup shot mapped against where the goals actually came from: attempts spray everywhere, goals collapse into a tight central band.
- Every Free Public Soccer Data Source, Ranked
The honest map of where free football data actually lives — what each source covers, and what it doesn't.
- Leicester 2015-16 Revisited
The 5,000-to-1 season, re-read through the underlying numbers — how much was skill, and how much was a miracle.
- Football Aging Curves
When players actually peak, what fades first, and why sprinting dies before passing does.
Tools and data
How the tools work- World Cup 2026 simulator
Monte Carlo over the real 48-team format. You set the team strengths; it reports advance and title odds.
- xG to match outcome
Two xG totals become a Poisson scoreline grid, win, draw and loss odds, and expected points.
- Elo and SPI expected score
A rating gap turned into a win expectancy with the logistic Elo curve.
- Penalty shootout probability
Best of five plus sudden death, worked out exactly from one conversion rate.
- 2022 World Cup shot map
All 1,494 shots on an interactive pitch, each sized by its xG. StatsBomb open data.
- World Cup 2026 results file
Every 2026 World Cup figure on the site comes from this one public JSON file.
About this site
SoccerAnalytics.net is an independent publication about the measurable side of football. The aim is simple: take the metrics that now shape how clubs recruit, coaches plan and broadcasters talk — expected goals, expected threat, PPDA, progressive actions, post-shot xG — and explain what they actually measure, where they come from, and where they break.
Nothing here is hand-waved. Every chart and table is built from public data — primarily StatsBomb open data, supplemented by Understat and FBref — and each piece names the dataset it was computed from and writes the computation out step by step, with those datasets served on this site so you can re-derive the numbers yourself. When a figure can't be sourced from a real data pull, it doesn't get published.
If you want the metrics explained honestly, the tutorials to compute them yourself, and the occasional argument about what the data does and doesn't prove, you're in the right place. Start with the stat explainers, or learn to pull the data yourself.